Wang Lixiong wrote...

Wang Lixiong says expect the next big one -- at the latest -- when the
Dalai Lama dies. He made his prediction in a Chinese blog post on his
wife's web site responding to the news that the Dalai Lama was losing
hope in a dialogue with China. I've included a translation below.

Wang is a writer and probably the deepest thinking Chinese scholar on
Tibetan issues. For years, he's contended that the only longterm
solution for China would involve direct negotiations with the Dalai
Lama. Ultimately, he's said China should allow the Dalai Lama to
return to Tibet and that the Communist Party should seriously consider
the Dalai Lama's "middle way" solution for Tibet that would allow the
territory some autonomy but also still place it firmly within the
Chinese state. For his troubles, and for those of his wife, the
Tibetan writer Oser, who is also an advocate for Tibetan issues, Wang
is currently under a form of house arrest in Beijing.


Here's the piece:


The Fire Next Time in Tibet
by Wang Lixiong


In the May 2008 issue of the New York Review of Books, Columbia
University contemporary Tibet expert Robert Barnett wrote--in
response to the widespread belief that no one foresaw March's Lhasa
riot and subsequent region-wide unrest--that Chinese intellectual
Wang Lixiong had predicted the uprising. According to Barnett: "In
1998 Wang wrote that Tibet is materially better-off than at anytime
in its history. But this has not bought the Communist Party Tibetans'
good faith. On the contrary more and more people are turning toward
the Dalai Lama.... The present stability is superficial. There will
come a day when people will participate in insurrections larger than
those of 1987 and 1989."


I came to understand that Chinese police shared my conviction at that
time. They were in fact more accurate than Robert, because I had
written that essay in 2000--not 1998. It was entitled: "The Dalai
Lama is the Key to Resolving the Tibet Problem." But the Chinese
police did not discuss this with me at the time. Their responsibility
is to suppress unrest, not analyze its cause. But I again predict:
The next time there is unrest in Tibet, it will be larger than that
of the spring of 2008.


I can even predict the timing of the next uprising in Tibet: If the
Dalai Lama dies without returning to Tibet or without there being
significant progress in the situation in Tibet, his death will be
like a clear signal to the people of Tibet to rise up en masse. And
China's massive repression apparatus has no means of stopping this.
It requires no formal organization or planning on the part of
Tibetans, this sense of solidarity cannot be expunged through
punitive measures.


All those who understand Tibet know that the Dalai Lama's fate is
like a wound in every Tibetan's heart. As Tibetan Buddhism's
spiritual leader, this bodhisattva has made tremendous sacrifices. He
has relinquished the demand for independence, and just desires a high
degree of autonomy to preserve Tibet's unique culture and religion.
But to these modest conditions the Chinese government has responded
with unceasing humiliation. They have not permitted the Dalai Lama to
return to his birthplace, not permitted him to meet his people who
have waited a whole lifetime to see him. In this way they will be
parted forever by death. This kind of pain is incomparable. While the
Dalai Lama is still alive, no matter how many obstacles are
encountered, Tibetans harbor hope. But once the Dalai Lama dies, this
hope will be replaced by despair, anger will outweigh fear, grief
will give rise to frenzy. For these reasons the next uprising will be
extremely fierce. The scope will be broader, the affected area
greater, and the number of participants larger than those of spring
2008. And it will not be possible to pacify it in a short period of
time.


Masses rising up at the death of a leader is a known phenomenon in
China. The protests and subsequent crackdown in Tiananmen Square on
April 5, 1976 followed the death of Premier Zhou Enlai. The April
1989 death of Hu Yaobang led to the bloody events in Tiananmen Square
on June 4. If the Chinese government wants to avoid another
insurrection in Tibet, the only solution is to make progress, and
ideally have a breakthrough, on the Tibet problem before the Dalai
Lama dies.


I see that the Chinese ultra-nationalist zelots and disinformation
employees of the Chinese secret police have been busy posting here.
Hear these words of a Buddhist monk from long ago: "Insulting Buddhism
is like shooting arrows at the moon."


What Mr. Wang has left out is that with the Dali Lama gone, Tibetans
won't fear disappointing him by engaging in violence. Mr. Wang comes
closest to understanding the Tibetan people of any Han writer, but
even he fails to realize just how personal the relationship between
the Tibetan people and the Dali Lama is. They love the Dali Lama in a
very personal way, and do not wish to hurt him by being violent.


The Chinese government is run by fools and thugs. Don't they remember
that the Soviet Union was an atheist country for 80 years? Now the
Russian Orthodox Church is very strong. A people do not forget their
religion.


The Chinese fail to realize what to the rest of the world is an
obvious truth-the Dali Lama is their best bet for a peaceful
resolution with the Tibetans, because he is a pacifist and a man of
great good will to all people, including the Chinese people, and he is
about to retire from the political stage. Those who replace his
political role won't be pacifists, and they won't have any good will
at all towards the Chinese people
If he is not the only religious leader Tibetans revere, why is his
picture banned in all of Tibet? Majority of the Tibetans are still in
Tibet, except it is over numbered by Han Chinese immigrants in Tibet.
The recent demonstrations all over Tibet calling his return clearly
show their respect towards the Dalai Lama and anger at the Chinese
occupation of Tibet. Tibetans still continue to cross the snow covered
high passes into India and Nepal to escape Chinese oppression. A nun
last year was shot dead while fleeing and several teen agers arrested
by the Chinese border security on Nangpala pass. It was captured on
video. Tibet issue is significant to China as exposed soon after the
demonstrations in Tibet and out cry leading up to the Olympics. China
can solve this problem while the Dalai Lama is alive and willing to
negotiate with the Chinese government.
The Dalai Lama has for decades clearly stated that he is negotiating
for a genuine autonomy and not a complete independence.
He has never preached racial segregation. He has shown concerned at
the massive influx of Chinese population into Tibet because of the
danger it puts the Tibetans, now the minority in preserving its
culture and religion. He infact has large Chinese sympathizers. He
wishes the Chinese brothers and sisters well and has even taken
unpopular stand within the exile Tibetan community for fully
supporting the Beijing Olympics
DALAI LAMA SUPPORT AND COMPASSION TOWARDS CHINESE PEOPLE.VIDEO
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VnDzyA6j2I


>